Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Election

1. Who Is Going To Win The 2020 Election Cnn
2. Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Election Debate
3. Who Is Favored To Win In The 2020 Election
4. Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Election Turnout

Believe it or not, we're now 100 days and 15 hours from the 2020 election. As we enter the final stretch of the campaign, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden continues to hold an advantage over President Donald Trump in the polls.

A look at history reveals that while Biden's clearly the favorite, his victory is not assured in an unprecedented election.

Odds For The 2020 Presidential Election. Once the Democratic Party announced Joe Biden as their nominee for President his odds to win the 2020 Election shortened and have continued to do so ever since. Most major sportsbooks have Biden as the favorite to win this year's Presidential Election over President Trump. Corrected on Oct. 31, 2020: An earlier version of this article incorrectly listed the Cook Political Report forecast on October 29. There are 123 toss up Electoral College votes in that projection. Sportsbooks have been holding onto all money bet on the 2020 presidential election — part because of Donald Trump's attempts to overturn the election, but mostly because they could. Monday, some books began paying out Biden bettors after the electoral college voted to confirm his victory. Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2020 election have jumped substantially over the past month: Since July 30, his implied probability has improved from 33.4% (+175) to 45.4% (+100) at European sportsbook Betfair — a 12% increase. These are his best odds since early June. Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won't be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time.

1. This is the rare election not about the economy

A Fox News poll earlier this month revealed that 29% of voters said coronavirus/Covid-19 was the most important issue facing the country. That was nearly double the 15% who said the economy.

Going back over time, there have only been a select number of modern elections not about the economy. In each of those elections, the candidate trusted most on this non-economic issue went on to win.

Indeed, vote choice is currently strongly correlated with whether voters think Biden or Trump can better handle coronavirus.

Pineapple 13 card poker. The fact that coronavirus is playing such a big role in voters' perceptions of Biden, Trump and the presidential race means that for now Trump's in big trouble. But it also means that if the coronavirus picture changes for the better by November, Trump could come back.

2. That said, Trump's approval rating is really bad

Right now, Trump has approximately a 40% approval rating and a 55% disapproval rating. This makes for a net approval rating of -15 points.

Since 1940, no president has ever won another term in the White House with such a poor net approval rating at this point. The closest was Harry Truman in 1948, whose approval rating was nearly 10 points better at -6 points.

Live football betting tips today uk. Video: Why Biden is polling better than Clinton against Trump (CNN)

As a group, the presidents (Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush) who were not elected to a second term look eerily similar to Trump. Their average net approval rating stood at -13 points.

Trump's net approval rating isn't anywhere close to the average president who has earned another term, +23 points.

3. A Trump win is still within the margin of error

Biden is up by anywhere from eight points (including all polls) to 12 points (just live interview polls) in the national average, depending how you compute it. That's a sizable edge.

If you look at the polling 100 days out from each election involving an incumbent since 1940, the average difference between the polls at this point and the result has been 10 points. If you look at the elections (seven) where we were not in-between conventions at this point, that difference drops to six points.

Trump would need an average to above average error to win the national vote. He would also need that error to go in his direction and not actually benefit Biden. That's unlikely to occur.

Still, he can take some hope from Truman in 1948, who was down by about the same in the national polls right now. Truman would go on to win by five points.

4. Biden's advantage in the electoral college is clear

If you were to average the polls in every state, Biden leads in states containing 352 electoral votes to Trump's 186. He's additionally within a point in Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Texas (38 electoral votes).

It's quite conceivable that Biden would win over 400 electoral votes, if the election were held today.

Perhaps as importantly, there is little sign that the electoral college will doom him like it doomed Hillary Clinton in 2016. His average lead in key states like Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin look quite similar to his advantage nationally.

5. This election looks nothing like 2016

Speaking of the 2016 election, Biden's in a much better position than Clinton. Consider this fact: Clinton was hitting her apex in the national polls at this very moment. She had just wrapped up a successful Democratic National Convention, and she held an average 44% to 38% lead in two live interview polls completed 100 days from the election.

Biden's at 52% to Trump's 40% in the live interview national polls taken in July. That is, he's over 50%, unlike Clinton, and has basically double the lead Clinton was holding after her convention.

Biden continues to have a better favorable rating and is viewed as far more honest than Clinton.

Simply put, you'd much rather be Biden than Trump. But with some time to go, there's still time for a Trump comeback.

The latest 2024 presidential election odds show Vice President Kamala Harris as the front-runner over President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump at most European sportsbooks. For instance, Harris is +350 to win in 2024 at Bet365, with Biden at +400 and Trump at +600.

The thinking is that Biden may opt to let Harris take the reigns in the next Presidential election cycle, due to the fact that Biden will be 81-years-old three years from now.

The first deciding events are the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which usually take place in February. Although the winners of these party-specific races aren't necessarily shoe-ins for their party's nominations, the results of these events can impact the odds greatly.

By the time Iowans and New Hampshirites gather to make their decisions, bettors in the United Kingdom and around Europe should have a good idea of who is in the running for the nominations of both parties. Despite all the historic precedent of renominating an incumbent, that isn't a foregone conclusion for the Democrats in 2024.

Here's a look at the current US Presidential Election odds at two UK books:

Presidential election odds 2024

Given the recent historic turnout in Black communities in major cities around the country, Harris makes sense as the front-runner right now. It's reasonable to assume the leaders in those communities could fire that machine back up in 2024 to get behind her.

The Democrats may want to maximize that momentum by nominating Harris instead of pushing for a second term for Biden. If they do so, that would be a first. So far in US history, no major party has ever opted not to renominate an incumbent when he's been eligible for reelection.

That's partially because ousting an incumbent president has proven very difficult in US history. Prior to 2020, it hadn't happened in nearly 30 years. Here's the full list of one-term presidents and their tenures in office:

• Donald Trump, 2017-2021
• George H.W. Bush, 1989-1993
• Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981
• Gerald Ford, 1974-77
• Herbert Hoover, 1929-33
• William Howard Taft, 1909-13
• Benjamin Harrison, 1889-93
• Martin Van Buren, 1837-41
• John Quincy Adams, 1825-29
• John Adams, 1797-1801

If the Democrats do nominate Harris in 2024, it will be historic for other reasons, however. No major party has ever nominated an African-American woman for president, for example.

Harris' nomination could come in the same year as a historic nomination by the other party. The possible scenario has only played out one other time in US history.

Can Donald Trump run again in 2024?

The short answer is yes.

Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.

Who Is Going To Win The 2020 Election Cnn

In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.

By a similar measure, Trump also had more people vote for his opponent than any other incumbent in US history. That's another reason why the GOP may look elsewhere in 2024.

UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.

Election betting explained

Often times, books will refer to markets on these contests as 'futures.' That's because they will settle the bets months or years into the future.

The lines on this event are called moneylines or straight bets. That means you're simply picking a winner of the contest, with the margin of victory and other elements irrelevant for these purposes.

Using the 2020 presidential election as an example, UK books liked Trump as a strong contender. They started him out at +100 or 'even money' then moved him to -150 throughout the cycle. His odds rounded out at +150.

That means if you put $100 down at first opportunity, you would have doubled your money exactly had he won. When his odds moved to -150, you would have had to wager $150 to make $100 in profit. At +150, you'd get a $150 payout on a wager of $100.

What to monitor: polling data

Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now (May 2019), candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. That's why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.

As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing (or galvanizing) voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.

For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:

Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Election Debate

• Real Clear Politics: Consolidates and links to the most respected polls.
• FiveThirtyEight Polls: Does the same but presents the information in a different way.

Top 2024 US Presidential Contenders

Democrats

In US history, no major party has ever failed to renominate an incumbent for reelection when he's been eligible for another term. UK books feel that the Democrats will break that tradition in 2024, however, nominating Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris instead. Other frontrunners at these books include NY Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Republicans

While Donald Trump is the frontrunner at UK books right now, current Vice President Mike Pence is the next top contender. After that, the field contains former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Trump's daughter Ivanka.

Who Is Favored To Win In The 2020 Election

2024 Presidential betting tips

In terms of presidential elections, the candidates who most represent the opposite end of the spectrum ideologically often fare the best. For example, Barack Obama and Donald Trump were about as different as could be.

That's usually following a two-term president, however. As 2024 will come at the tail end of Joe Biden's first term and he may run for reelection as the incumbent, that typical wisdom may prove unreliable.

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Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Election Turnout

Still, he can take some hope from Truman in 1948, who was down by about the same in the national polls right now. Truman would go on to win by five points.

4. Biden's advantage in the electoral college is clear

If you were to average the polls in every state, Biden leads in states containing 352 electoral votes to Trump's 186. He's additionally within a point in Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Texas (38 electoral votes).

It's quite conceivable that Biden would win over 400 electoral votes, if the election were held today.

Perhaps as importantly, there is little sign that the electoral college will doom him like it doomed Hillary Clinton in 2016. His average lead in key states like Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin look quite similar to his advantage nationally.

5. This election looks nothing like 2016

Speaking of the 2016 election, Biden's in a much better position than Clinton. Consider this fact: Clinton was hitting her apex in the national polls at this very moment. She had just wrapped up a successful Democratic National Convention, and she held an average 44% to 38% lead in two live interview polls completed 100 days from the election.

Biden's at 52% to Trump's 40% in the live interview national polls taken in July. That is, he's over 50%, unlike Clinton, and has basically double the lead Clinton was holding after her convention.

Biden continues to have a better favorable rating and is viewed as far more honest than Clinton.

Simply put, you'd much rather be Biden than Trump. But with some time to go, there's still time for a Trump comeback.

The latest 2024 presidential election odds show Vice President Kamala Harris as the front-runner over President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump at most European sportsbooks. For instance, Harris is +350 to win in 2024 at Bet365, with Biden at +400 and Trump at +600.

The thinking is that Biden may opt to let Harris take the reigns in the next Presidential election cycle, due to the fact that Biden will be 81-years-old three years from now.

The first deciding events are the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which usually take place in February. Although the winners of these party-specific races aren't necessarily shoe-ins for their party's nominations, the results of these events can impact the odds greatly.

By the time Iowans and New Hampshirites gather to make their decisions, bettors in the United Kingdom and around Europe should have a good idea of who is in the running for the nominations of both parties. Despite all the historic precedent of renominating an incumbent, that isn't a foregone conclusion for the Democrats in 2024.

Here's a look at the current US Presidential Election odds at two UK books:

Presidential election odds 2024

Given the recent historic turnout in Black communities in major cities around the country, Harris makes sense as the front-runner right now. It's reasonable to assume the leaders in those communities could fire that machine back up in 2024 to get behind her.

The Democrats may want to maximize that momentum by nominating Harris instead of pushing for a second term for Biden. If they do so, that would be a first. So far in US history, no major party has ever opted not to renominate an incumbent when he's been eligible for reelection.

That's partially because ousting an incumbent president has proven very difficult in US history. Prior to 2020, it hadn't happened in nearly 30 years. Here's the full list of one-term presidents and their tenures in office:

• Donald Trump, 2017-2021
• George H.W. Bush, 1989-1993
• Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981
• Gerald Ford, 1974-77
• Herbert Hoover, 1929-33
• William Howard Taft, 1909-13
• Benjamin Harrison, 1889-93
• Martin Van Buren, 1837-41
• John Quincy Adams, 1825-29
• John Adams, 1797-1801

If the Democrats do nominate Harris in 2024, it will be historic for other reasons, however. No major party has ever nominated an African-American woman for president, for example.

Harris' nomination could come in the same year as a historic nomination by the other party. The possible scenario has only played out one other time in US history.

Can Donald Trump run again in 2024?

The short answer is yes.

Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.

Who Is Going To Win The 2020 Election Cnn

In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.

By a similar measure, Trump also had more people vote for his opponent than any other incumbent in US history. That's another reason why the GOP may look elsewhere in 2024.

UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.

Election betting explained

Often times, books will refer to markets on these contests as 'futures.' That's because they will settle the bets months or years into the future.

The lines on this event are called moneylines or straight bets. That means you're simply picking a winner of the contest, with the margin of victory and other elements irrelevant for these purposes.

Using the 2020 presidential election as an example, UK books liked Trump as a strong contender. They started him out at +100 or 'even money' then moved him to -150 throughout the cycle. His odds rounded out at +150.

That means if you put $100 down at first opportunity, you would have doubled your money exactly had he won. When his odds moved to -150, you would have had to wager $150 to make $100 in profit. At +150, you'd get a $150 payout on a wager of $100.

What to monitor: polling data

Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now (May 2019), candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. That's why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.

As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing (or galvanizing) voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.

For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:

Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Election Debate

• Real Clear Politics: Consolidates and links to the most respected polls.
• FiveThirtyEight Polls: Does the same but presents the information in a different way.

Top 2024 US Presidential Contenders

Democrats

In US history, no major party has ever failed to renominate an incumbent for reelection when he's been eligible for another term. UK books feel that the Democrats will break that tradition in 2024, however, nominating Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris instead. Other frontrunners at these books include NY Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Republicans

While Donald Trump is the frontrunner at UK books right now, current Vice President Mike Pence is the next top contender. After that, the field contains former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Trump's daughter Ivanka.

Who Is Favored To Win In The 2020 Election

2024 Presidential betting tips

In terms of presidential elections, the candidates who most represent the opposite end of the spectrum ideologically often fare the best. For example, Barack Obama and Donald Trump were about as different as could be.

That's usually following a two-term president, however. As 2024 will come at the tail end of Joe Biden's first term and he may run for reelection as the incumbent, that typical wisdom may prove unreliable.

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Who Is Favored To Win The 2020 Election Turnout

Watch candidates' fundraising and polling as the cycle nears. That will be an indicator into which candidates to back at the books.

Can you bet in the US?

So far, no states have allowed sportsbooks within their borders to take action on the results of any US elections. If that changes to any degree, TheLines will keep you updated on the progress of that movement.